The average person should not even really pay attention to the category of the storm. That is mostly of scientific concern. It measures the maximum wind speed found at the relatively tiny center of circulation which may or may not have anything to do with how destructive the rest of the storm is hundreds of miles away from the center, as the article points out. That can also depend on things that have nothing to do with the storm itself, such as whether it’s impacting an area with lax building codes that is unprepared for storm surge. People should forget about that scale and focus on what local authorities are saying about the potential danger.
If you live on the coast, following the details of the forecasts and warnings is extremely important. But my experience living a little over 100 miles inland taught me that the hurricane category is a useful predictor to some extent: anything below category 3 would weaken enough on its way inland that it wasn't a higher risk than routine severe thunderstorms, and didn't require any special advance preparations. The winds would merely be coming from a different direction than usual for our area, and only the areas usually prone to flash flooding had to worry about the volume of rain. It's location-specific, but it is possible to usefully distill the local risk profile down to something where the hurricane category tells you whether it's time to start worrying about that storm.
A comparison can be drawn to the scales used for measuring earthquakes. Although the Richter scale is quite common in many parts of the world, in Japan the Shindo scale is primarily used. This measures the local ground shaking intensity, as opposed to the Richter scale which measures the amount of energy released in the quake.
I think you’re in total agreement with the authors of this new system. They’re simply making a new categorization system that is closer to a 1:1 mapping between the classification and what local authorities are saying about potential danger.
It's easier to make the classification a better representation of danger than it is to convince people to ignore the rating and only listen to local authorities.
This article is about replacing the current scale with one that does factor in more than just wind speed. You're right that it's still just a number though.
(a) The final category can never be lower than the
highest hazard-based category;
(b) The TCSS should adequately reflect the case of
high potential risk of two or more hazards. We
consider a hazard of high risk when its respect-
ive category is classified as 3 or higher (equal
to the definition for a Major Hurricane on the
SSHWS). Whenever (at least) two high risk haz-
ards have the same category value and the third
hazard has a lower category value, the final
category should increment the highest hazard-
based category. This implies that a TC scoring a
Category 3 on both wind and storm surge, and
a Category 1 on rainfall, will be classified as a
Category 4.
(c) To warn the general public for an event with
multiple extreme hazards, a high-risk TC can be
classified as a Category 6 when either 1. at least
two of the hazard-based categories are of Cat-
egory 5; or 2. two categories are of Category 4,
and one of Category 5.
Yep.It this did much damage because places so far North East never experienced storm and so they never built with that in mind.
In place that experience this kind of weather more often(some parts of the Caribbean), it would have been business as usual the next day and I speak from experience.
There’s been some nasty storms, up here. They just happen infrequently.
What made Sandy so bad, was timing. It hit at high tide, and mixed with another storm.
Also, geography. The Long Island Sound (the water between Long Island and Connecticut) can act as a “funnel,” that concentrates storm surges, if the wind is from the northeast, and there’s a number of waterways and estuaries, along the South Shore, that normally act as buffers, but actually turned into concentrators, with Sandy. Several seaside communities got all but wiped out, with boats being docked into the kid’s second-story bedroom.
Southmost Manhattan is mostly reclaimed land. That is naturally prone to flooding. It also has some of the most expensive real estate in the world, so any flooding is guaranteed to be pricey.
Because of the timing issue, I’m skeptical that anyone could predict how bad it got.
And I would argue that even if that was the case, if these areas saw more storms, then the likelihood of this occurring would not have been so one-off. They would have built with that consideration.
Possibly, but never underestimate the short-sightedness of real estate developers. In places like Florida, they force them to design storm-resistant housing (post-Andrew, mainly).
Up here, after Sandy, any house south of Montauk Highway, is basically uninsurable. So you have a lot of waterfront property, that people can't sell. The insurance companies basically enforce it.
My mother was big into managing stormwater runoff (in Maryland). It was one of her casus belli (She had more than one –She was pretty scrappy).
It sounds like under the new ratings, both would be much closer together. It sounds like the water damage caused by Sandy is not articulated in the current rating system. So Sandy might work out to be a 4 or a 5? Not 100% sure of course, but that is my interpretation of the article.
Feels like something similar to the NFPA 704 safety square [0] — maybe they could copy that to mimic a relatively accepted "danger measurement" format.
Also of interest: hypercanes [1], my hurricane-adjacent Interesting Wikipedia Deep Dive, which (according to Wikipedia):
- require ocean temperatures of 120 °F (50 °C)
- have sustained winds of 500 mph (800 km/h)
- have barometric pressures in their centers sufficiently low enough to cause altitude sickness
- may persist for several weeks due to above low pressure
- may be as large as North America or as small as 15 mi (25 km) — Wikipedia has an unhelpful caption about the size of the "average hypercane" (!)
- extend into the upper stratosphere, unlike today's hurricanes (lower stratosphere)
- due to above height, may sufficiently degrade the ozone layer with water vapor to the point of causing (an additional) hazard to planetary life
I keep meaning to reread Bruce Sterling's Heavy Weather, about a future where the climate is trashed & weather escalates. Amid this, a group of tornado chasers are trying to find the first "F6" class tornado. https://thierstein.net/index.php?view=article&id=355:bruce-s...
It’s my understanding that “category 5” means “total destruction”, which is why this hasn’t been done in the past. However if it helps to get the point across about climate change, it would be helpful for marketing purposes.
That's not what the proposed change is about. (It's about replacing the scale with a different one that takes into account flooding and other dangers that better reflect the likelihood of fatalities than just wind speed alone. Category 1 hurricanes can sometimes be more dangerous than higher-category hurricanes under the current scale.) I worry that people might not take this seriously because they assume this is a frivolous rebranding to "market" climate change.
Hurricane categories just mean that winds are above a certain threshold. For cat 5 I think it’s 157mph, and that means if the hurricane has winds of eg 170mph it’s still a category 5.
Another problem with this system is that some category 2 or even 1 hurricanes can cause incredible devastation, depending on where they hit. But people see category 1 and they assume it’ll be nothing.
Sorry but that reason for a change feels very coercive. If cat 5 is intended to be total destruction, meaning that anything above the lower bounds for a cat 5 is indistinguishable, there should be no 6.
That's not what this is. (The person you're responding to didn't read the article.) They're not looking to add a "total-er destruction" category; they're looking to replace the current scale with one that takes into account more factors than just wind speed, such as storm surge and flooding. Under the current scale, a category 1 hurricane can be deadlier and more destructive than a higher-category hurricane. They want to use a different scale that better indicates the dangers. It goes up to 6 when multiple factors rate 5 on each factor's specific scale under the proposed system.
I think the title of this article is misleading and clickbaity. :/
Category 6 could also be useful in that it implies multiple threats to avoid.
Evacuation strategies for a cat 5 that’s just storm surge is very different than one that is wind and rain. Either way you lose the city, but with the latter, moving to high ground won’t save you.
The National Hurricane Center has figured out pretty well how to depict hurricane danger to the public, but a lot of people don't bother to pay attention to it and go for noisy sources instead. I think it's a good example for how to prioritize important information in general. Every few hours, they put out a selection of graphics:
- A "Key messages" graphic with 2-4 bullet points about what is going on, what is predicted to happen, and specific dangers to look out for. The tone of the text is carefully adjusted for how life-threatening the situation is. This graphic also includes a copy of the two most important visualizations on the right. (Example: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2024/HELENE_graphics.php?pr...)
- A cone to depict the range of predictions for where the hurricane could go, ideally without a confusing line drawn in the center prediction (Example: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2024/HELENE_graphics.php?pr...) Arguably this could be replaced with a spaghetti model map, but these can be just as confusing for those unaware of how predictions are depicted.
- A no-frills ad-free weather report livestreamed to social media, so you can gauge how much the pros at the very top level of hurricane meteorology are freaking out about it (Example: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GFL-nbFs2Xs)
- A few other graphics and data dumps primarily intended for meteorologists, local officials, and nerds
As a Florida resident and native, I've been telling people for years to brace for a "Goreicane", which is a cat 6 named after Al.
Irma reached +180mph before magically dwindling to a 3 (or weak 4?) just before landfall. By then, we were already without power, so stats were unknown. I made a safety box out of a toolbox into which I stuffed my cat and provisions, as I wore an old motorcycle helmet and combat boots clutching a bugout bag and bottle of courage.
I really didn't expect to do well and had it hit as a super 5, I'd probably not be leaving this silly post.
Your recollection of Irma's intensity is not particularly accurate. It was never anywhere near 180 mph "just before landfall" unless you were in the Leeward Islands on September 6. Irma crossed the Florida Keys on September 10 as a weak category 4, with 130 mph winds, but it didn't dwindle to that weak category 4 status, it intensified to it. When it left Cuba and turned toward Florida, on September 9, it was only a category 2 (and there was nothing magical about why it dwindled to a category 2 — it was because it ran into Cuban terrain). It did weaken a bit, down to a 115 mph Cat 3, between the Keys and it's second landfall in Collier County.
Hurricane Dorian, in 2019, was almost a "Cat 6" kind of experience for Florida. It made landfall in the Bahamas with 185 mph winds and then just parked itself there, barely moving, for 24+ hours, maintaining Cat 5 strength the whole time. If it had done that on Florida's east coast, as it was once forecast to, the economic destruction would have been unbelievable.
Last I heard from weather people, cat 6 is not really needed, wonder if that changed recently.
With NOAA's cuts, the only way I think cat 6 will be add is Trump wants to be the one to create that level and scientists state it is not really needed :)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Japan_Meteorological_Agency_se...
It's easier to make the classification a better representation of danger than it is to convince people to ignore the rating and only listen to local authorities.
Lax building codes in hurricane prone areas shouldn't exist after Hurricane Andrew in 1992 [0].
And then there was the Trump sharpie incident. [1]
Wind speed is the best metric (that's not corruptible by humans yet) that describes how dangerous a storm is.
[0]: https://www.npr.org/2024/10/15/nx-s1-5151844/tougher-buildin...
[1]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Dorian%E2%80%93Alaba...
This new rating system uses the old system and 2 new rating categories
(a) The final category can never be lower than the highest hazard-based category;
(b) The TCSS should adequately reflect the case of high potential risk of two or more hazards. We consider a hazard of high risk when its respect- ive category is classified as 3 or higher (equal to the definition for a Major Hurricane on the SSHWS). Whenever (at least) two high risk haz- ards have the same category value and the third hazard has a lower category value, the final category should increment the highest hazard- based category. This implies that a TC scoring a Category 3 on both wind and storm surge, and a Category 1 on rainfall, will be classified as a Category 4.
(c) To warn the general public for an event with multiple extreme hazards, a high-risk TC can be classified as a Category 6 when either 1. at least two of the hazard-based categories are of Cat- egory 5; or 2. two categories are of Category 4, and one of Category 5.
But about 30 years ago, Andrew swept across Florida like a giant roomba, and did a huge amount of damage. It was a cat 5. Wind did most of the damage.
Not sure how they would reconcile these two types of mega-storms.
In place that experience this kind of weather more often(some parts of the Caribbean), it would have been business as usual the next day and I speak from experience.
There’s been some nasty storms, up here. They just happen infrequently.
What made Sandy so bad, was timing. It hit at high tide, and mixed with another storm.
Also, geography. The Long Island Sound (the water between Long Island and Connecticut) can act as a “funnel,” that concentrates storm surges, if the wind is from the northeast, and there’s a number of waterways and estuaries, along the South Shore, that normally act as buffers, but actually turned into concentrators, with Sandy. Several seaside communities got all but wiped out, with boats being docked into the kid’s second-story bedroom.
Southmost Manhattan is mostly reclaimed land. That is naturally prone to flooding. It also has some of the most expensive real estate in the world, so any flooding is guaranteed to be pricey.
Because of the timing issue, I’m skeptical that anyone could predict how bad it got.
Up here, after Sandy, any house south of Montauk Highway, is basically uninsurable. So you have a lot of waterfront property, that people can't sell. The insurance companies basically enforce it.
My mother was big into managing stormwater runoff (in Maryland). It was one of her casus belli (She had more than one –She was pretty scrappy).
Real estate developers hated her.
Maybe something like free energy in thermodynamics?
Also of interest: hypercanes [1], my hurricane-adjacent Interesting Wikipedia Deep Dive, which (according to Wikipedia):
- require ocean temperatures of 120 °F (50 °C)
- have sustained winds of 500 mph (800 km/h)
- have barometric pressures in their centers sufficiently low enough to cause altitude sickness
- may persist for several weeks due to above low pressure
- may be as large as North America or as small as 15 mi (25 km) — Wikipedia has an unhelpful caption about the size of the "average hypercane" (!)
- extend into the upper stratosphere, unlike today's hurricanes (lower stratosphere)
- due to above height, may sufficiently degrade the ozone layer with water vapor to the point of causing (an additional) hazard to planetary life
[0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NFPA_704
[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hypercane
Different extreme weather but fun book.
Another problem with this system is that some category 2 or even 1 hurricanes can cause incredible devastation, depending on where they hit. But people see category 1 and they assume it’ll be nothing.
I think the title of this article is misleading and clickbaity. :/
Evacuation strategies for a cat 5 that’s just storm surge is very different than one that is wind and rain. Either way you lose the city, but with the latter, moving to high ground won’t save you.
You could have “geological changes” above that; reroutes rivers, moves mountains, etc.
- A "Key messages" graphic with 2-4 bullet points about what is going on, what is predicted to happen, and specific dangers to look out for. The tone of the text is carefully adjusted for how life-threatening the situation is. This graphic also includes a copy of the two most important visualizations on the right. (Example: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2024/HELENE_graphics.php?pr...)
- A peak storm surge graphic showing predicted coastal inundation and destructive wave action (Example: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2024/HELENE_graphics.php?pr...)
- A cone to depict the range of predictions for where the hurricane could go, ideally without a confusing line drawn in the center prediction (Example: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2024/HELENE_graphics.php?pr...) Arguably this could be replaced with a spaghetti model map, but these can be just as confusing for those unaware of how predictions are depicted.
- A map of the most likely arrival time for hurricane force winds (Example: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2024/HELENE_graphics.php?pr...)
- After the main risks are over, a map of continued flash flood and river flooding risk (Example: https://www.usatoday.com/gcdn/authoring/authoring-images/202...)
- A no-frills ad-free weather report livestreamed to social media, so you can gauge how much the pros at the very top level of hurricane meteorology are freaking out about it (Example: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GFL-nbFs2Xs)
- A few other graphics and data dumps primarily intended for meteorologists, local officials, and nerds
Irma reached +180mph before magically dwindling to a 3 (or weak 4?) just before landfall. By then, we were already without power, so stats were unknown. I made a safety box out of a toolbox into which I stuffed my cat and provisions, as I wore an old motorcycle helmet and combat boots clutching a bugout bag and bottle of courage.
I really didn't expect to do well and had it hit as a super 5, I'd probably not be leaving this silly post.
But cat 6 is real. We'll see it soon.
Hurricane Dorian, in 2019, was almost a "Cat 6" kind of experience for Florida. It made landfall in the Bahamas with 185 mph winds and then just parked itself there, barely moving, for 24+ hours, maintaining Cat 5 strength the whole time. If it had done that on Florida's east coast, as it was once forecast to, the economic destruction would have been unbelievable.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4xgx4k83zzc
With NOAA's cuts, the only way I think cat 6 will be add is Trump wants to be the one to create that level and scientists state it is not really needed :)